Deliveroo Q4 Trading Update – What to Expect

Deliveroo (LON: ROO) is reporting its Q4 trading update on Thursday, and with the stock down 46% over the last year, can investors expect any positive signs…

In its Q3 trading update in October, the challenging consumer environment and economic headwinds led to a 1% decline in orders for the delivery firm…

However, the group reported gross transaction value (GTV) was up 8% year-on-year in reported currency, while GTV per order gained 9%, driven by item level price inflation.

Its UK and Ireland division outperformed its international counterpart, with GTV up 11% and orders up 5%, but the firm updated its FY22 guidance, anticipating GTV growth of between 4% and 8%, below the previous 4% to 12% guidance.

But where does this leave Deliveroo ahead of its Q4 update…

Several companies have reported growth over the Q4 period, more specifically, the Christmas period. For example, UK fast-casual Mexican restaurant Tortilla said revenue for the year ended January 1 increased to £57.7 million ($69.8 from £48.1 million in fiscal 2021.

While that is a positive for Deliveroo, the company also noted that it started a delivery partnership with Uber Eats in July to sit alongside its current Deliveroo partnership, which was previously exclusive.

Meanwhile, grocery delivery company Ocado announced record Christmas sales, rising 15% in the five days before Christmas.

While demand for Tortilla and Ocado was seemingly robust, despite the cost-of-living crisis, Deliveroo faces the additional challenge of strong comparatives to Q4 2021, which saw GTV up 70% and orders up 42%.

In addition, Christmas is not generally associated with ordering food in, making it another potential recent demand headwind.

Last week, JPMorgan downgraded Deliveroo to Underweight from Neutral, cutting its price target in the stock to 91p from 95p.

The firm said it sees only a “limited boost” from the FIFA World Cup in Q4, not enough to withstand weakening UK consumer budgets, while JPMorgan’s order estimates for Deliveroo are slightly below consensus expectations for the UK-exposed names.

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